If A
were to draw every game, there would need to be at least 8
games for A
to obtain 4
points, so A
has to win at least 1
game. Similarly, if A
wins more than 4
games, they will have more than 4
points.
Case 1: A
wins 1
game and draws 6.
This case amounts to selecting 1
out of 7
for A
to win and assigning a draw for the other 6
games. Hence, there are 7
possibilities.
Case 2: A
wins 2
games and draws 4.
There are (72)
ways to assign 2
wins to A.
For each of them, there are (54)
ways to assign four draws to A
out of the remaining 5
games. Player B
wins the remaining game. The total number of possibilities for this case
is (72)×(54).
Case 3: A
wins 3
games and draws 2.
There are (73)
ways to assign 3
wins to A.
For each of them, there are (42)
ways to assign two draws to A
out of the remaining 4
games. B
wins the remaining 2
games. The total number of possibilities for this case is (73)×(42).
Case 4: A
wins 4
games and loses 3.
There are (74)
ways to assign 4
wins to A.
B
wins the remaining 3
games. The total number of possibilities for this case is (74).
Summing up the number of possibilities in each of the cases we get
(71)+(72)×(54)+(73)×(42)+(74)
If B
were to win the last game, that would mean that A
had already obtained 4
points prior to the last game, so the last game would not be played at
all. Hence, B
could not have won the last game. The last game must have ended in
either A winning (case 1) or a draw (case 2).
Case 1: A
wins the last game. This means A
had 3 points after 6 games.
There are four possibilities for A
to earn 3 points in 6 games:
-
1.1.
- 6 draws
-
1.2.
- 3 wins and 3 losses
-
1.3.
- 2 wins, 2 draws, and 2 losses
-
1.4.
- 1 win, 4 draws, and 1 loss.
Let’s calculate the number of possibilities for each of these subcases.
-
1.1.
- There is only one way to assign 6 draws to 6 games: The number
of possibilities is 1.
-
1.2.
- There are (63)
ways to assign 3 wins to A
out of the first 6 games. The remaining 3 games are losses for
A.
The number of possibilities is (63).
-
1.3.
- There are (62)
ways to assign 2 wins to A
out of the first 6 games. There are (42)
ways to assign 2 draws out of the remaining 4 games. The remaining
2 games are losses for A.
The number of possibilities is (62)×(42).
-
1.4.
- There are (61)
ways to assign 1 win to A
out of the first 6 games. There are (54)
ways to assign 4 draws out of the remaining 5 games. The remaining
game is a loss for A.
The number of possibilities is (61)×(54).
Case 2: The last game ends in a draw. This means
A
had 3.5 points after 6 games.
There are three possibilities for A
to earn 3.5 points in 6 games:
-
2.1.
- 3 wins, 1 draw, and 2 losses
-
2.2.
- 2 wins, 3 draws, and 1 loss
-
2.3.
- 1 win, 5 draws.
Let’s calculate the number of possibilities for each of these subcases.
-
2.1.
- There are (63)
ways to assign 3 wins to A
out of the first 6 games. There are (31)
ways to assign 1 draw out of the remaining 3 games. The remaining
2 games are losses for A.
The number of possibilities is (63)×(31).
-
2.2.
- There are (62)
ways to assign 2 wins to A
out of the first 6 games. There are (43)
ways to assign 3 draws out of the remaining 4 games. The remaining
game is a loss for A.
The number of possibilities is (62)×(43).
-
2.3.
- There are (61)
ways to assign 1 win to A
out of the first 6 games. The remaining 5 games are losses for
A.
The number of possibilities is (61).
The total number of possibilities then is:
1+(63)+(62)×(42)+(61)×(54)+(63)×(31)+(62)×(43)+(61)